First rate hike since 2023. Bonds shrugged. Your rate did not spike. Real talk inside.
(The Fed hiked and it was unanimous.)
Quarter point, first rate hike since July 2023. Kevin Warsh's second meeting in the chair and his official line was: inflation is still too high, and this move gets us back to 2% on a "timelier" schedule. Yes, that's the word they used. The markets immediately reacted and I watched the last little bits of green slip away to where we're currently sitting at -15 from yesterday's close.
1. How bonds reacted. The 10 year Treasury hit 5% on Tuesday, highest since 2007, and after the decision it... sat there. No party, no panic. That's the market throwing a hissy fit and saying, "fine, we believe you."
2. One and done, or more coming? Of course there is more coming... 16 of 18 Fed members see at least one more hike this year. But not October (six days before the midterms, remember??). Most bets are on December!
3. The oil problem. Warsh said the quiet part out loud: the Fed can't fix an oil supply shock. What they can do is keep it from spreading into everything else. Honest answer. Bonds liked hearing it.
Rates are up! The highest in a year, and flirting with 7. I say this every time and I'll keep saying it: God bless the people I closed at 8.375% in Q4 2023. We are not there. (Shout out to y'all reading this. You're the real ones.)
The Fed's own forecast has inflation not hitting 2% until 2029. Translation: nobody serious is promising a rate drop next month. Life is going to life, the market's going to market.
If you're under contract: if you locked before today, you did the right thing. If you didn't, call me. We're not in "wait and see," we're in "protect your closing."
If you're on my Rate Watch List: sit tight, same as before. A refi can make sense before rates fall if you're carrying card or car debt, paying mortgage insurance you could drop, or your credit has improved. I check that for everyone on the list.
If you're thinking about buying: the right time is when it's right for your family and the payment works. Waiting on a specific rate number has burned a lot of people over the last four years. Don't be one of them.
Numbers don't have feelings. That's why I'm a lender, not a realtor. Ha!
Next Fed meeting is October 27 and 28. Ahead of the Fed lands the week before. I promise.
You're the boss. I just work here.
Educational purposes only, not a rate quote, offer, or commitment to lend. National survey averages; your rate depends on your credit, loan type, and situation. Market data as of September 16, 2026.
Read the Ahead of the Fed piece that called this one, then join the Rate Watch List so you never miss the next.
Read Ahead of the Fed